Carson Branstine vs Darja Semenistaja
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market appears to overvalue the away player despite near-identical profiles; we see Branstine at ~50% and 2.25 offers positive EV.
Highlights
- • Player profiles and recent form are effectively matched — treat as coin flip
- • Home ML 2.25 implies a lower win probability than our estimate, creating value
Pros
- + Clear value versus implied market probability at current home price
- + No surface or recent-form evidence to justify the away favorite
Cons
- - Limited and noisy data (both players have poor overall records), increasing outcome variance
- - No head-to-head or injury information to strengthen confidence in the estimate
Details
We find value on the home moneyline (Carson Branstine at 2.25). The available research shows essentially identical career records and recent form for both players (both 10-21 with mixed results on hard and clay), with no clear edge for Semenistaja despite the market favoring her. Surface exposure and recent results do not differentiate the players, so we treat this as roughly a coin-flip matchup and estimate Branstine's true win probability at 50%. Comparing that 50% estimate to the market price (2.25) gives positive expected value (EV = 0.5 * 2.25 - 1 = +0.125). The away price (1.645) is beaten by our probability estimate and offers negative EV, so we recommend taking the home side only because current public odds overvalue the away player relative to our model.
Key factors
- • Both players show near-identical career records and recent form in the research
- • Surface experience (hard/clay) is similar, providing no clear matchup advantage
- • Market favors away player but research does not justify that edge, creating value on home ML