Highlights

• • Market implies ~86% for I Wen Wan; we estimate ~70%
• • Required decimal odds for value would be >= 1.429

Pros

• + I Wen Wan's long career and positive overall win-loss record argue she should be favored
• + No injury or absence flags appear in the supplied material

Cons

• - Recent supplied match notes show losses, indicating possible form concerns
• - No data provided for Catarina Moreira or surface/venue specifics to justify the heavy market favoritism

Details

The market makes I Wen Wan a heavy favorite at 1.16 (implied ~86.2%). We examined the available player data: I Wen Wan has long-term experience and a positive career record (559-507), but the supplied recent match notes show losses in the most recent events and provide no direct head-to-head or clear surface/venue advantage information. With only the provided sources, there is insufficient evidence to justify believing her true win probability is as high as the market implies. We conservatively estimate I Wen Wan's true win probability at 70% given experience vs unknown opponent and recent mixed form; this implies the current price (1.16) offers negative expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.16 - 1 = -0.188). To be +EV on I Wen Wan you would need an implied price of at most 1/0.70 = 1.429 (decimal), far above the available 1.16. Because the market price is too short relative to our probability estimate, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • I Wen Wan has substantial career experience and a positive overall record (559-507)
• • Recent supplied results show back-to-back losses in the most recent events, limiting confidence in form
• • Market price (1.16) implies ~86% win probability, which is not supported by the limited data provided