Caterina Odorizzi vs Marta Lombardini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value exists at current prices: the favorite's market price is slightly too short versus our conservative true-win estimate, so we recommend no wager.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (1/1.06) = 94.34%
- • Our conservative true probability = 94.0% → break-even odds 1.064
- • Current odds (1.06) produce a small negative EV (-0.36%)
Pros
- + Avoids taking a very small negative-expected-value wager
- + Conservative approach given incomplete information on the favorite
Cons
- - If Lombardini's true probability is higher than our conservative 94% estimate, we miss a tiny positive edge
- - Very short favorites can move quickly; odds may become worse if you wait
Details
The market heavily favors Marta Lombardini at 1.06 (implied win probability ~94.34%). Our conservative estimate for Lombardini's true win probability is 94.0% (0.94) given the limited research: Caterina Odorizzi shows a poor recent record (10-21 career in 2024-2025 with recent straight losses), and there is no performance/injury data for Lombardini in the provided material to justify a meaningful divergence from the market. Using our 0.94 probability, the break-even decimal odds would be 1.064. Current odds of 1.06 are slightly shorter than that threshold, producing a small negative expected value (EV = 0.94 * 1.06 - 1 = -0.0036). Because EV is negative at available prices, we do not recommend taking a side.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~94.34% for Lombardini at 1.06
- • Odorizzi's recent form and overall record are weak (10-21); recent losses noted
- • No data provided on Lombardini to justify disagreement with the market