Highlights

• • Adam Jilly's implied win probability (~91.7%) appears overstated versus his 5-8 career record
• • Home underdog at 7.00 is priced above our fair-value threshold (~5.56)

Pros

• + Significant margin between market price and our conservative true probability
• + Current odds (7.00) offer a large cushion versus required breakeven odds (~5.56)

Cons

• - Very limited publicly supplied data on Cedric Drenth increases outcome uncertainty
• - Short sample size and lack of head-to-head or injury information mean our probability estimate has high variance

Details

We find clear value on the home underdog (Cedric Drenth) at current price. The market prices Adam Jilly at 1.09 (implied ~91.7% win probability), but the only available performance data for Jilly shows a short career (13 matches, 5-8 record) and recent losses, which do not support a ~92% true-win probability against an opponent of unknown strength. With limited information on Cedric Drenth, the heavy favorite price looks like an overreaction by the market. Conservatively estimating Cedric's true win probability at 18% implies a fair decimal price of ~5.56; the available price of 7.00 therefore presents positive expected value (EV = 0.18 * 7.00 - 1 = +0.26). We use the quoted current odds of 7.0 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Market implies Adam Jilly has ~91.7% win probability at 1.09, which conflicts with his 5-8 career record
• • Recent form for Adam Jilly shows several recent losses, reducing confidence in a near-certain win
• • No negative data on Cedric Drenth and large market overpricing of favorite creates underdog value