Highlights

• • Profiles and records in the research are essentially even
• • Home at 3.67 implies ~27% but we estimate ~50%, generating positive EV

Pros

• + Large positive EV based on conservative 50/50 probability
• + No injuries or surface disadvantages noted for the home player in provided sources

Cons

• - Very limited and symmetric data increases model uncertainty
• - Market may be reflecting information not present in the provided research (ranking, recent practice, travel, etc.)

Details

We find clear value on the home player (Celia Anson Sanchez). The available research shows both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form and surface experience (clay and hard), so a neutral prior expectation is roughly 50/50. The market however prices Shannon Lam at 1.231 (≈81% implied) and Celia Anson Sanchez at 3.67 (≈27% implied). Given the symmetric profiles and no injury or surface advantage evident in the provided data, the market favorite appears overstated and the underdog price is generous. Using a conservative estimated true win probability of 0.50 for the home player, the home fair odds are 2.00 while the current offer is 3.67, producing a strongly positive expected value (EV = 0.50 * 3.67 - 1 = 0.835). We note high uncertainty due to limited and similar data for both players, so while the mathematical value is large, this is based on an even-probability assumption driven by the provided research.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent results in the provided data
• • Surface is clay; both have played clay and hard with no clear clay advantage shown in research
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.231) without supporting differentiating information in the sources