Highlights

• • Break-even probability for home at 2.14 is 46.7%; our estimate is 48.0%
• • Market appears to overprice the away side based on the supplied data

Pros

• + Price (2.14) is above our conservative fair odds, producing a small positive EV
• + Both players appear evenly matched in the supplied research, supporting a near-50/50 assessment

Cons

• - Research is thin and largely mirrored for both players — high uncertainty
• - Edge is small (EV ~2.7%), so variance can easily wipe out short-term gains

Details

Both players show nearly identical profiles in the provided research (10-21 career records, play on clay and hard, no clear form or injury advantage). The market prices the away player considerably heavier (1.68 -> implied ~59.5%) despite no evidence in the supplied data to justify such a large gap. The break-even probability for the home price (2.14) is 46.7%; given parity in records and surfaces we estimate the home win probability slightly above break-even at 48.0%, which yields a small positive edge. Due to limited and mirrored data we remain conservative in our probability estimate and flag higher uncertainty, but the current home price appears to offer modest value versus our estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical recorded win-loss totals (10-21) in the provided data
• • Both listed as playing clay and hard; no surface edge shown in research
• • Market overweights the away player relative to the limited evidence supplied (1.68 suggests ~59.5% vs no clear justification)