Centro Espanol(Reserves)VSArgentino Rosario(Reserves)

Details

We view Argentino Rosario (Reserves) as the clear favorite but, given no specific squad, form, injury, or head-to-head information, we adopt a conservative true-win probability of 80% for the away side. The market price of 1.20 implies a win probability of ~83.33%, which overstates the away side relative to our conservative estimate and produces negative expected value. The home price (14.8) implies a ~6.8% chance; we do not see credible reasons to raise a reserves-side longshot to that level of value without supporting data. Therefore we decline to recommend a bet because the favorite offers negative EV at current odds.