Cesar Bouchelaghem vs David Petrovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: favorite Cesar is overpriced by the market relative to our 88% estimate, and David's price does not offer a positive EV either.
Highlights
- • Market implies Cesar ~95% but we estimate ~88%
- • Both sides produce negative EV at available odds
Pros
- + Cesar is the clear form and record favorite on paper
- + Market consensus reflects that advantage — very low variance outcome likely
Cons
- - Price on Cesar (1.05) offers no return and is negative EV vs our estimate
- - David's price would need a noticeably higher true upset probability to be profitable
Details
We compared the market prices (Cesar 1.05, David 8.0) to our assessed win probabilities based on the provided career and recent-form data. The market heavily favors Cesar (implied ~95%), but Cesar's career record is only 6-6 with several recent losses and limited match volume; David has a very poor record (1-7) but upsets remain possible in small-sample lower-tier events. We estimate Cesar's true win probability at 88% — materially lower than the market-implied 95% — reflecting uncertainty, recent form, and small sample size. At Cesar odds 1.05 the EV = 0.88*1.05 - 1 = -0.076 (negative). At David odds 8.0 even if we generously give him a 12% true chance, EV = 0.12*8.0 - 1 = -0.04 (also negative). Neither side shows positive expected value at the available prices, so we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Market heavily overprices the favorite (implied ~95%), leaving little margin
- • Cesar's record is only 6-6 with recent losses — limited sample and form risk
- • David's 1-7 record indicates low upset probability, but not enough to justify 8.0 as value