Cesar Bouchelaghem vs Ezekiel Clark
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no value on the Cesar moneyline at 1.592 because our estimated true win probability (57%) requires odds of ~1.754 to be profitable.
Highlights
- • Market overprices the home favorite by ~6 percentage points
- • Small samples and similar recent local form make the matchup closer than odds suggest
Pros
- + Cesar has a slightly better career win rate and is the market favorite
- + Both players have recent matches at Monastir so form is at least contextually relevant
Cons
- - Ezekiel's larger hard-court sample and experience narrows Cesar's edge
- - Current price (1.592) produces a negative ROI vs our probability model
Details
We estimate Cesar Bouchelaghem as a modest favorite but not as large as the market implies. Our estimate of Cesar's win probability (57%) is based on his 9-7 career record (56.3%) and comparable recent Monastir hard-court results for both players; Ezekiel Clark has greater match volume on hard and a similar recent local form profile, which reduces Cesar's edge. The market decimals (Cesar 1.592 => implied 62.8%) overstate Cesar's advantage by roughly 6 percentage points; that translates into a negative expected value at the available price. Given the small sample sizes and mixed recent results, we do not find value at the current moneyline.
Key factors
- • Cesar's career win rate (9-7) indicates ~56% baseline winning chance on combined surfaces
- • Ezekiel has far more matches on hard (more sample/experience) and similar recent Monastir results, reducing Cesar's true edge
- • Market implies Cesar ~62.8% (1.592) — we view this as overstated vs our ~57% estimate
- • Small sample sizes and no clear H2H or injury information increases uncertainty