Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Maxence: ~58%; our estimate: 61%
• • Breakeven decimal odds for our estimate: 1.639; current quote 1.725 offers positive EV

Pros

• + Away player has larger match sample and prior activity in Monastir (hard surface)
• + Current price (1.725) exceeds our minimum required odds (1.639) for value

Cons

• - ITF-level matches are volatile and research provided is limited and partially incomplete
• - Cesar could be underestimated due to sparse but potentially improving form not fully detailed

Details

We compare the market price to our assessment of the two players using only the provided research. The market prices imply ~58.0% for Maxence (1.725) and ~49.5% for Cesar (2.02). Maxence has a substantially larger recent sample (47 matches, 25-22) and specific recent activity in Monastir on hard courts, while Cesar has a small sample (12 matches, 6-6) and recent losses noted in his last results. Given venue/surface familiarity and greater match experience for Maxence, we assess his true win probability higher than the market-implied 58%. We estimate Maxence's probability at 61%; at the current price of 1.725 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.061*1.725 - 1 = 0.051). The breakeven decimal price for our estimate is 1.639, so current offers (1.725) represent value. We note uncertainty due to limited detail on recent form specifics and typical volatility at ITF level, but on the balance of the provided data the away side looks profitable at available prices.

Key factors

• • Maxence has much larger recent match sample (47 matches) versus Cesar (12), suggesting greater form/readiness
• • Match likely on hard in Monastir where Maxence recently played, giving venue/surface familiarity edge
• • Cesar's recent results show more losses and limited data, increasing uncertainty on his upside