Cesar Bouchelaghem vs Toufik Sahtali

Highlights

• • Book implies away win probability of 41.8%; we estimate 46.0%
• • Current away odds (2.39) > break-even (2.174) => positive EV (~0.099)

Pros

• + Away-side odds provide a clear mathematical edge versus our probability estimate
• + Toufik's larger hard-court match sample supports a more stable probability estimate

Cons

• - Both players present similar recent form — upside for variance and upset risk
• - Small career sample sizes and noisy match stats increase forecast uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The book prices imply Cesar (home) at 1.521 -> 65.8% and Toufik (away) at 2.39 -> 41.8% (there is a ~7.6% market margin). Both players have similar recent form and win rates, but Toufik has a larger match sample concentrated on hard courts (29 matches vs Cesar's 16) and recent results at the same M15 Monastir hard venue indicate comparable performance. Given Toufik's greater hard-court sample and marginally steadier track record on the surface, we assign Toufik a true win probability of 46.0%. At that probability the break-even decimal odds are ~2.174; the current away price of 2.39 exceeds this, producing positive expected value. We acknowledge small sample sizes, noisy match-level stats, and lack of H2H as risk factors, but on pure value terms the away line appears mispriced and offers ~9.9% ROI by our estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players recent form is similar at M15 Monastir (hard), reducing the impact of form-based lean
• • Toufik has a larger, hard-court-focused sample (29 matches) versus Cesar's smaller sample (16), favoring a more reliable estimate for Toufik
• • Market margin inflates favorite price; away decimal 2.39 is above our break-even 2.174 giving positive expected value