Highlights

• • Duran is the clear favorite by market and career record (25-15)
• • Current price is too short to offer positive expected value given surface uncertainty

Pros

• + Duran has a solid overall win rate and recent match activity
• + Market consensus aligns with research that Duran should win

Cons

• - No grass-court data for Duran in the provided research
• - Extremely low payout on the favorite means even small estimation errors make it negative EV

Details

We estimate Tuncay Duran is the stronger player based on a 25-15 career record and recent match volume, but the market price (away moneyline 1.117) implies ~89.6% win probability which we find too high given the available information. Duran's documented activity is on clay/hard with no grass performance data in the research; surface uncertainty plus lack of any public profile for Cezar Stefan Bentzel (no H2H or injury info provided) lowers our confidence. We estimate Duran's true win probability around 78%; at decimal odds 1.117 the EV = 0.78*1.117 - 1 = -0.129 (negative), so there is no value on the favorite. To have positive EV on Duran we would need at least decimal 1.282. Therefore we recommend no bet at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Duran (implied ~89.6%), leaving little margin for value
• • Duran's recorded play is on clay/hard; no grass data increases outcome uncertainty
• • No available profile or H2H for Bentzel in the research—qualifier matches carry higher variance