Highlights

• • Book price implies ~86% probability; our model ~80%
• • Required odds ≥1.25 for a positive expected value

Pros

• + Cretu has an objectively strong recent win-loss record (43-25)
• + Current market clearly favors the home player, reflecting form advantage

Cons

• - Available match data is from clay/hard; grass form is unproven
• - At 1.162 the bookmaker price is too short to offer positive EV given our conservative probability

Details

We compare the market price (Cezar Cretu 1.162 => implied ~86.0%) to our assessment. Cretu has a strong overall record (43-25) and recent wins, but the available data shows those matches were on clay/hard — we lack evidence of grass form. We estimate Cretu's true win probability at 80.0% given surface uncertainty and limited direct matchup information. At that probability the break-even decimal is 1.25, meaning the current price of 1.162 offers negative expected value. EV calculation using the current moneyline: EV = 0.80 * 1.162 - 1 = -0.070 (approx -7.0% ROI). Because EV < 0 at the quoted price, we do not recommend backing Cretu here.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability ~86.0% vs our estimate 80.0%
• • Cretu's recent form is good but on clay/hard, not grass
• • Insufficient matchup/grass data for Mashtakov to justify a larger edge