Highlights

• • Market already favors home heavily; our model sees a slight additional edge
• • Sharygin’s single recorded match (0-1 on hard) supports a low upset probability

Pros

• + Current price (1.29) is slightly above our fair odds threshold (1.282)
• + Limited opponent experience materially lowers the probability of an away upset

Cons

• - Extremely limited dataset (only one match for Sharygin) increases estimation variance
• - No provided information on the home player's form, injuries, or H2H — raises model risk

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.29, implied 77.5%) to our assessment based on the research: Evan Sharygin has only one recorded professional match (0-1) on hard courts, indicating very limited match experience and no demonstrated success on the surface. The market already prices Chad Miller as a strong favorite; given Sharygin's lack of depth and hard-court record, we estimate the home player’s true win probability slightly above the market-implied probability. At an estimated true probability of 78.0%, the current home price of 1.29 offers a small positive expected value (EV = 0.78*1.29 - 1 = 0.0062). The edge is marginal but present; the recommendation is to take the home moneyline only because the price exceeds our minimum fair odds threshold. Key risks are the very limited data set and absence of public information about the home player in the provided research, which increases uncertainty around our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Evan Sharygin has only one recorded professional match (0-1) and lost on hard court
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.29) is ~77.5%; we assess a slightly higher true probability (78%)
• • Significant information gap regarding the home player increases model uncertainty