Highlights

• • Current market implies only ~30.8% for Oh, we estimate ~38%
• • Positive EV of ~0.235 (23.5% ROI) at the quoted 3.25

Pros

• + Underdog price (3.25) exceeds our fair-odds threshold (2.632)
• + Oh has demonstrable recent hard-court match experience while Weber's provided recent form is weak

Cons

• - Limited and noisy sample of recent results in the research; high variance in challenger-level tennis
• - No head-to-head or up-to-the-minute injury/fitness information in the provided sources

Details

We see a clear market lean to Arthur Weber at 1.30 (implied ~77%); however the underlying profiles show very similar career records (Oh 16-15, Weber 15-14) and Oh has recent hard-court activity (M15 Singapore) while Weber's recent results in the research are losses on clay and there is less evidence of recent hard-court form. Given the comparable skill profiles, surface relevance to Oh, and Weber's skid in the provided recent matches, we estimate Chan-Yeong Oh's true win probability materially above the market-implied ~30.8% for his 3.25 price. Using a conservative estimate of Oh at 38.0% true win probability, the fair odds would be ~2.632; the current price of 3.25 therefore offers positive expected value (EV = 0.38 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.235). Risks remain (small sample sizes, limited head-to-head data, venue/surface uncertainty), but at the quoted prices we find value on the home underdog.

Key factors

• • Very similar career records and match experience between the two players
• • Chan-Yeong Oh has recent hard-court activity (M15 Singapore) while Weber's recent matches in the file are losses on clay
• • Market heavily favors Weber (1.30) creating an attractive overlay for Oh at 3.25 if our win-probability estimate is correct