Highlights

• • Janssen heavily backed at 1.07 despite a 10-21 career record
• • Estimated true probability (~32%) would require ~3.125 decimal odds to break even

Pros

• + Janssen has experience on both clay and hard courts (per profile)
• + Market consensus clearly favors Janssen, so liquidity/pricing is available if new info emerges

Cons

• - Career win rate and recent form do not support the market-implied ~93% win probability
• - No data provided on opponent (Mateva) creates significant uncertainty about matchup dynamics

Details

We see the market heavily backs Chanel Janssen at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%), but the only empirical data available (her career profile) shows a 10-21 record across 31 matches and recent losses on 30-Jun-2025 and 01-Sep-2025, indicating weak form. Using her career win rate (approximately 32%) and recent results, we estimate Janssen's true win probability to be about 32%, which is far below the market-implied probability. At the quoted home price (1.07) the bet has strongly negative expected value (EV = p * odds - 1 ≈ -0.658 per unit). We also lack any performance or ranking data for Aleksandra Mateva in the provided research, which increases uncertainty but does not justify the market's near-certainty pricing for Janssen. Given the large gap between our estimated probability and the market price, there is no value on either side at the current odds and we recommend betting none.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Janssen (1.07) is ~93.5%, which is implausible versus available performance data
• • Janssen career record 10-21 (31 matches) and recent losses indicate true win probability nearer to ~32%
• • No provided data on Aleksandra Mateva increases uncertainty and argues for caution rather than taking the heavy favorite