Highlights

• • Market heavily overprices the home favorite relative to documented win rate
• • Current away odds (7.50) exceed our fair price (5.00) by a wide margin

Pros

• + Strong positive expected value at current odds
• + Conservative probability estimate still yields large edge

Cons

• - Limited available data on opponent creates uncertainty in the probability estimate
• - If there are unreported injuries or vastly superior form for the favorite, edge could disappear

Details

The market prices Charles Broom as an overwhelming favorite at 1.08 (implied win probability ~92.6%) which is far out of line with his recorded career win rate (~56%) and mixed recent form. We conservatively estimate Hyu Kawanishi has a ~20% chance to win (home ~80%) — a probability materially higher than the market-implied ~13.3% for the away player at 7.50. At our estimate the required fair decimal price for the underdog is 5.00; the current 7.50 offers substantial margin and positive expected value. Given limited data on Kawanishi we remain conservative in our probability estimate but still find clear value on the away price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (home 92.6%) are extreme versus Broom’s documented career win rate (~56%)
• • Broom’s recent results are mixed; no clear dominance to justify 1.08 price
• • Large margin between our required odds (5.00) and current away odds (7.50) creates value