Charles Broom vs Matthew Dellavedova

Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability ~26% vs our estimate 36%
• • Min fair odds to break even: 2.778; current 3.85 offers a sizeable margin

Pros

• + Dellavedova has a larger sample of matches and similar win rate, reducing variance risk
• + Both players are comfortable on hard courts — no surface disadvantage identified
• + Current odds (3.85) are well above our min-required odds (2.778), creating EV

Cons

• - Profiles and recent-match data are limited; no H2H or detailed match-stat splits available
• - Market could be correctly pricing in subtle factors not present in the provided data (e.g., local conditions, late scratches)
• - Edge depends on our probability estimate; lower true probability eliminates value

Details

We see the market pricing Charles Broom as an ~81.6% favorite (1.226) while Matthew Dellavedova is priced at ~26.0% (3.85). The player profiles show both are primarily hard-court competitors with similar career win rates (Broom ~55.8% across 52 matches; Dellavedova ~56.8% across 81 matches). Dellavedova's larger sample size and comparable hard-court experience suggest the market underestimates his chance here. Given the parity in form/surface and absence of injury flags, a conservative estimate places Dellavedova's true win probability materially above the implied 26% - we estimate ~36%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal odds are 2.778; the current 3.85 offers positive expected value. We therefore recommend betting the away player only because EV > 0 at the posted price. If the market moves down toward ~2.78 or lower the edge disappears.

Key factors

• • Both players primarily play hard courts and have recent matches on hard surfaces
• • Dellavedova has a larger match sample (81 vs 52) and a comparable career win rate
• • Market prices strongly favor Broom (1.226) which appears overstated given available form data