Highlights

• • Market overprices the home player at 1.40 (implied ~71%)
• • Shiraishi’s career win rate and larger match sample justify a higher true probability than the market implies

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.75)
• + Surface experience is comparable, reducing a clear home-favorite edge

Cons

• - Margin of value is modest and reliant on limited publicly provided form details
• - No head-to-head data provided; matchup dynamics could materially alter the estimate

Details

The market strongly favors the home player at 1.40 (implied ~71%), while the away price of 2.75 implies only ~36%. Using only the provided player profiles and recent form, we see both players have experience on hard courts and comparable records, but Hikaru Shiraishi has a slightly better career win rate (38-27, 58.5% career) and more total matches (65 vs 52), indicating marginally greater consistency. Recent snippets show both players with recent losses, so form is mixed and there is no clear injury flag for either. Given the similar surface experience and Shiraishi's edge in career win percentage and match sample, we estimate Shiraishi's true chance materially above the market-implied 36% — we estimate 40%. At that probability the away price of 2.75 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 2.75 - 1 = +0.10), so the away side represents value. We do note uncertainty due to limited direct matchup (no H2H data) and inconsistent recent results, so the margin is modest but positive.

Key factors

• • Shiraishi has a slightly better career win percentage (38-27 vs 29-23)
• • Both players have hard-court experience; surface neutralizes a strong home-favor market
• • No injury flags in provided data and mixed recent form for both increases market mispricing risk