Charles Broom vs Yusuke Kusuhara

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Broom far exceeds what match data suggests
• • Break-even odds for our estimated probability would be ~1.667; current price 1.087 is too short

Pros

• + Broom has more match volume and experience across hard and grass
• + Both players have recent activity (not clearly rusted/injured in the provided data)

Cons

• - Available win-rate data does not support a >90% true probability for Broom
• - No head-to-head, ranking, or injury details in the research to justify the market margin

Details

We compare the market price (Charles Broom 1.087 -> implied ~92.0% win chance) to the evidence in the available profiles. Both players have similar career win rates on hard (Charles Broom ~55.8% overall with hard surface experience; Yusuke Kusuhara ~57.6% overall and plays hard), and recent results shown are mixed for each. There is no head-to-head or injury information in the provided research that justifies a >90% true probability for Broom. Using a conservative model-based estimate of Broom's true win probability (~60%), the market price of 1.087 is deeply over-priced against that estimate (1/0.60 = 1.667 required decimal odds to break even). At the current quoted odds, the expected ROI is strongly negative, so we do not recommend betting either side — there is no value at the listed prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~92% for Broom (1.087) which is not supported by similar win rates in the profiles
• • Both players have hard‑court experience; no clear performance edge in the provided data
• • No injuries, H2H, or tournament-seed information in the research to justify the market skew