Highlights

• • Tamm’s career win-rate (~40%) contradicts a 79% implied market probability
• • Home required break-even odds (3.03) are well below the available price (3.55)

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between market-implied probability and player’s documented career win rate
• + Current decimal 3.55 offers a meaningful positive EV under conservative true-probability assumptions

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on Charles De Saint Laumer in the provided research increases match-level uncertainty
• - If there are unreported factors (injury, ranking gap, surface specialization) favoring Tamm, value would evaporate

Details

We find value backing the home underdog, Charles De Saint Laumer, at 3.55. The market implies Kristjan Tamm has ~79% chance (1/1.26) to win, which is inconsistent with the supplied performance data: Tamm's career win rate is roughly 40% (98-147) and his recent results are mixed (wins and losses in August 2025). There is no injury or surface-specific advantage shown in the research to justify a near-80% market probability. Conservatively adjusting expectations toward a more realistic matchup probability gives the home player a ~33% chance; at decimal 3.55 that yields positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side because the current price materially overstates the favorite's chances versus the evidence provided.

Key factors

• • Kristjan Tamm career win rate is ~40% (98-147) — market 79% implied is extreme relative to career numbers
• • Recent form is mixed (recent wins and losses in August 2025), providing uncertainty in a heavy favorite price
• • Current home price 3.55 requires only ~28% true probability to be +EV; our conservative estimate of 33% exceeds that threshold