Highlights

• • Market implies ~73% for Pade (1.37), which is much higher than our 42% estimate
• • Negative EV at current price: approx -0.425 per unit staked

Pros

• + Pade has experience on hard and grass (surfaces noted in profile)
• + Home designation may explain market favoritism

Cons

• - Very small sample and poor recent results (1-5)
• - No information on the opponent to offset uncertainty — raises risk of mispricing

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Charlie Pade (1.37 => ~73% implied) to our assessment based on the available data. Pade's documented results show a 1-5 record across six career matches with recent straight losses on hard and grass; that poor form and the very small sample size reduce confidence that he is a 73% probability pick here. With no independent performance data for Connor McEvoy in the supplied research, we assume a materially lower true win probability for Pade (we estimate ~42%), which creates a large negative edge versus the 1.37 market price. At our estimated probability the bet is negative EV (EV = 0.42*1.37 - 1 = -0.425), so we do not recommend betting. For a positive expectation on Pade at our view, the market would need to offer at least decimal 2.381.

Key factors

• • Very poor recorded form for Pade (1 win, 5 losses across 6 matches)
• • Recent losses on hard and grass — surfaces listed for Pade
• • No supplied data on opponent (increases uncertainty and argues against overpricing Pade)