Highlights

• • Kalamaris has a low career win rate (10-21) and weak recent results
• • Current home odds (1.70) are above our minimum fair price (1.613) for a 62% win probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price (EV ≈ 5.4%)
• + Opponent's documented win rate and recent losses support estimating the favorite stronger than market-implied probability

Cons

• - Limited data on Charlotte Maurey in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - No H2H, injury, or explicit surface-advantage details in the research to further validate the edge

Details

We assess value on Charlotte Maurey (home). The market price of 1.70 implies a raw probability of ~58.8%; using the available research on Georgia Kalamaris (career record 10-21, ~32% career win rate, poor recent results) we assign a higher true probability to the favorite. Conservatively estimating Charlotte's win probability at 62%, the expected value at the current home price is positive: EV = 0.62 * 1.70 - 1 = 0.054 (5.4% ROI). By contrast, using the same beliefs the away price (2.05) is overpriced relative to Kalamaris's demonstrated level and produces a negative EV. Key contributors to our view are Kalamaris's low career win rate and recent form, plus the market making Charlotte a clear favorite — we view the market as slightly underestimating Charlotte's chances.

Key factors

• • Georgia Kalamaris career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) indicating limited baseline winning ability
• • Recent form for Kalamaris shows losses and no strong recent results to suggest improvement
• • Market prices Charlotte at 1.70 (implied ~58.8%); we estimate a true probability ~62% creating positive edge