Highlights

• • Van Impe's recorded win rate (~32%) and recent losses undermine a >90% market-implied chance.
• • At a generous 60% estimated chance, fair odds are ~1.667 — the offered 1.09 is negative EV.

Pros

• + Market consensus strongly favors Van Impe, so an outright upset would be high-reward.
• + Van Impe has experience on hard and clay, so surface compatibility is present in her profile.

Cons

• - Provided research shows a poor win-loss record and recent defeats for Van Impe.
• - Lack of any information on Charlotte Pikkaart creates high model uncertainty; we cannot justify the market gap.

Details

We compare the market price (Away Amelie Van Impe 1.09 => implied 91.7%) to the limited performance data available. Van Impe's profile shows a 10-21 record in 31 matches (≈32% career win rate) with recent losses, playing mainly hard and clay. There is no provided information on Charlotte Pikkaart to justify why the market places >90% probability on Van Impe. Even allowing for ranking/quality gaps not present in the research, the market's implied probability is far above what her available form suggests. Using a generous estimated true win probability for Van Impe of 60% (well above her recorded career rate but allowing for opponent quality unknown), the fair decimal price would be 1.667; the offered 1.09 produces a negative expected value. Because we cannot credibly justify a >91.7% true probability from the provided sources, there is no value to back Van Impe at 1.09, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Amelie Van Impe career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) with recent losses
• • Market heavily favors Van Impe (1.09 => implied 91.7%), which conflicts with provided form data
• • No data provided on Charlotte Pikkaart to justify market gap — high uncertainty