Highlights

• • Home price 1.03 implies ~97% chance — inconsistent with Fornasieri's 31% career win-rate.
• • Insufficient information on the opponent increases uncertainty; avoid wagering at current lines.

Pros

• + Clear conclusion: current odds offer no value for the favorite
• + Conservative estimated probability accounts for known form and unknown opponent

Cons

• - Limited dataset (only Fornasieri profile) increases uncertainty of our probability estimate
• - If opponent (Kaegi) is dramatically lower-ranked or injured, the market could be justified — information not provided

Details

We find no value backing the heavy market favorite (Home 1.03). The only provided data is Chiara Fornasieri's profile showing a 10-22 career record (31% win rate) with recent losses on hard courts; there is no information about Zoe Kaegi in the research, increasing uncertainty. The market's decimal price of 1.03 implies a win probability of ~97.1%, which is far higher than any reasonable estimate based on Fornasieri's documented form. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 35% for Fornasieri (slightly above her career rate to allow for matchup/unknowns), the expected value at the current home price is strongly negative (EV = 0.35 * 1.03 - 1 = -0.640), so we do not recommend betting either side at the posted lines.

Key factors

• • Poor documented career win-rate: 10-22 (≈31%) across surfaces
• • Recent form: consecutive losses on hard courts in the provided recent matches
• • Market price (1.03) implies an implausible ~97% win probability given available data