Highlights

• • Market implies Schaefer ~83% to win, but player profiles and recent form are nearly identical
• • At an estimated 40% win chance for Girelli, current odds 4.20 yield ~+68% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Large disconnect between implied probability and our estimated true probability
• + Both players’ recent form and surfaces played do not justify a heavy favorite

Cons

• - Limited data depth (no H2H, ranking, or injury specifics) increases uncertainty
• - Backing an underdog always carries higher variance despite positive EV

Details

The market prices Anne Schaefer as an 83% favorite (1.20 decimal) while Chiara Girelli is at 23.8% (4.20). The available player data show near-identical records (both ~10 wins, ~21 losses), the same surfaces (clay/hard), and virtually identical recent results — there is no clear performance or surface edge justifying an 83% implied win probability for Schaefer. Given the symmetry in form and experience, we estimate a substantially higher true win probability for Girelli than the market does. At a conservative estimated true probability of 40% for Girelli, the current 4.20 price offers strong positive expected value (EV = 0.40*4.20 - 1 = +0.68). We prefer the home upset at 4.20 because the market appears to overstate the away player’s advantage and does not reflect the players’ comparable records and recent form.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and match counts (both ~10-21)
• • Both players have been competing on the same surfaces (clay, hard) with similar recent results
• • Market-implied probabilities (Away 83%) appear disconnected from available form data, suggesting mispricing