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Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics play on 2026-02-04 01:04 in the NBA (ebasketball). Compare ebasketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 0.0%. No recommended side at current prices. Moneyline — Home: 4.4 (22.7%), Away: 1.18 (84.7%).
No clear edge at current prices. We recommend passing or waiting for line movement.
Home: 4.4, Away: 1.18. Odds may update frequently.
No bet recommended right now.
We estimate the Boston Celtics are the clear favorites based on form (6-1 recent run, strong home form) and dominant head-to-head history, but the market price (away moneyline 1.18, implied win probability ~84.7%) is shorter than our realistic win probability estimate. Using the research evidence — Celtics hot run, Celtics 5-1 at home, Bulls historically losing 8 of 9 to Boston but showing ATS resilience on the road — we place the Celtics' true win probability at 78%. That implies a fair decimal price of ~1.282, so backing Boston at the available 1.18 is negative expected value. The Bulls' longshot price (4.4) would only be attractive if we believed their straight-up win chance exceeded 22.7%; the research (H2H losses and Celtics form) does not support that level of outright probability. Therefore we recommend no bet because neither side offers positive EV at the quoted prices.
Summary: The market overprices Boston relative to our estimate of their true win probability (78%); at 1.18 there is no value on either side, so we recommend no bet.