Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Zhang (47.2%) is below our 52% estimate
• • Same-season records and recent form do not justify Muramatsu being a 60%+ favorite

Pros

• + Current odds (2.12) offer >10% ROI on our probability estimate
• + Research shows no clear advantage for the favorite that would justify the market gap

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent win rates and high variance — model uncertainty is significant
• - Lack of detailed H2H, rankings, and confirmed nationality/venue effect increases risk of mis-estimation

Details

The market prices Chihiro Muramatsu as the favorite at 1.662 (implied 60.2%) while Ying Zhang is offered at 2.12 (implied 47.2%). The available research shows both players with essentially identical 2024–2025 records (10-21) and similar recent form, suggesting their true match-up probability is much closer to even than the market implies. Given the event is the ITF Women Guiyang (local conditions likely favor a player with local familiarity) and no injury or clear form edge is reported for Muramatsu, we assess Ying Zhang has a better-than-market chance. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 52.0% for Zhang versus the market-implied 47.2% creates positive expected value at the current decimal price of 2.12.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical 2024–2025 records (10-21) and recent match lists — little objective difference in form
• • Market prices Muramatsu as a clear favorite, producing a lower implied probability for Zhang that appears too low
• • Event is ITF Guiyang; local conditions/home familiarity likely give Zhang a slight edge not reflected in the price
• • No injury reports or clear surface advantage present in the research to justify the market gap