Highlights

• • Chinmaya's recent 0-3 form on clay reduces his true win probability
• • Current away odds of 1.91 offer value versus our 58% win estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely available price (EV ≈ +0.108)
• + Market appears to overvalue the home player despite poor recent results

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes and limited public data on both players increase forecast uncertainty
• - No injury/H2H detail available for the away player to further validate the edge

Details

The market slightly favors the home player (Chinmaya) at 1.82 implied ~54.9%, while the away price 1.91 implies ~52.4%. Chinmaya's public record is concerning (0-3, recent losses on clay), which suggests the market may be overestimating him as favorite in this matchup. Given the limited data on both players but clear negative form for Chinmaya on clay, we estimate Ryan's true win probability at 58%. At the current away price of 1.91 this produces a positive edge: EV = 0.58 * 1.91 - 1 = +0.108 (≈10.8% ROI per unit). The market overround (~7.3%) partly explains the compressed pricing, but even after accounting for uncertainty we find value on the away side because our probability (58%) materially exceeds the book-implied probability (≈52.4%).

Key factors

• • Chinmaya Dev Chauhan has 0-3 recent record with losses on clay, indicating poor form on the surface
• • Book market slightly favors home despite Chinmaya's weak results, compressing prices and creating potential value on the away side
• • Limited sample sizes and sparse public data increase uncertainty, so estimated probability includes a margin for error