Chloe Paquet vs Linda Fruhvirtova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Chloe Paquet at 2.76 based on a 40% estimated win probability (EV ≈ +10.4%); the market appears to over-favour Fruhvirtova for a matchup that looks close on form and surface.
Highlights
- • Paquet implied chance at bookmakers: ~36.2%; our estimate: 40%
- • Estimated EV on Paquet at current price: +10.4% ROI
Pros
- + Price offers clear positive EV versus our probability model
- + Comparable recent surface form reduces upset risk
Cons
- - Both players have poor overall records this season—small sample and inconsistent form
- - Limited direct data and variability in recent match performances increases uncertainty
Details
We see both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on hard courts, so the match should be close. The market makes Linda Fruhvirtova a clear favourite at 1.455 (implied ~68.7%) while Chloe Paquet is priced at 2.76 (implied ~36.2%). Given comparable form and surfaces, plus Paquet showing strong serve metrics in recent matches, we estimate Paquet's true win probability at ~40.0%, meaning the current price of 2.76 offers value after accounting for bookmaker margin. At our estimate Paquet offers positive expected value (EV = 0.40*2.76 - 1 = +0.104, or +10.4% ROI). We therefore recommend taking the home underdog only because the market overprices Fruhvirtova relative to the matchup balance and Paquet's recent serve performance suggests she can stay competitive on hard courts.
Key factors
- • Nearly identical season records (10-21) and similar match counts
- • Both have recent matches on hard courts; Paquet showed very strong 1st-serve won in a recent hard match
- • Market skew toward Fruhvirtova creates an underdog pricing opportunity for Paquet