Christian Langmo vs Jack Pinnington Jones

Highlights

• • Home (Langmo) required odds for breakeven: 3.333; current 4.05 exceeds this
• • Market appears to overprice Pinnington Jones given mixed recent results and limited sample size

Pros

• + Significant price cushion vs our probability estimate
• + Langmo has greater recent match volume and grass experience

Cons

• - Limited direct matchup/H2H information increases variance
• - Short favorite could still be the stronger player on the day; outcome uncertain

Details

We find value backing Christian Langmo at 4.05. The market heavily favors Jack Pinnington Jones (1.259 implied ~79.4%), which appears overstated given the available profiles: Langmo has a larger recent match sample (70 matches, 38-31) and proven play on grass, while Pinnington Jones has fewer matches (41, 24-16) and mixed recent results including a loss at the US Open and a recent Challenger defeat. Both players show recent losses in the same Winston Salem event, suggesting form is not one-sided. With limited H2H data and no reported injuries, the matchup is plausibly much closer than the market implies. We estimate Langmo's true win probability at 30%, which requires minimum decimal odds of 3.333 to be profitable; the offered 4.05 therefore represents positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players have grass experience; Langmo has a larger match sample on tour
• • Market heavily favors Pinnington Jones; likely overstates his true win chance in a Challenger SF
• • Recent form shows both had losses at the same event — form edge unclear
• • No reported injuries or walkovers to justify such a short price on the favorite
• • Limited H2H data increases uncertainty, which usually lifts underdog value