Christian Langmo vs Antoine Ghibaudo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The favorite (Ghibaudo) looks marginally over-priced by the market relative to our 56% estimate; EV is negative at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Ghibaudo: ~59.7%
- • Our estimated true probability: 56% → current price offers negative EV
Pros
- + Ghibaudo's career win rate and Challenger experience justify favoritism
- + Market price is a conventional favorite price for a slight edge player
Cons
- - Small sample sizes on grass and limited direct-comparison info increase uncertainty
- - Negative expected value at current quoted odds (EV ≈ -0.061)
Details
We compare the market price (Away Ghibaudo 1.676 implied ~59.7%) to our estimated true win chance. Both players have grass experience and similar Challenger-level profiles; Ghibaudo's career win rate is slightly higher (26/44 ~59%) vs Langmo (38/70 ~54%), but small samples, mixed recent form, and no clear H2H edge make the market favorite price look a touch optimistic. We estimate Ghibaudo's true probability at 56%, which produces a negative EV at the current decimal 1.676 (EV ≈ -0.061). Because expected value is negative at available prices, we do not recommend a side. For reference, the market would need to offer at least 1.786 on Ghibaudo to reach breakeven against our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Ghibaudo has a slightly higher career win rate (26-18) than Langmo (38-31) but across fewer matches
- • Both players have grass experience; small sample sizes and mixed recent results increase uncertainty
- • Market implies ~59.7% for Ghibaudo; we estimate ~56% due to uncertainty and thin sample, leaving no value