Highlights

• • Market-implied normalized probability for home ≈ 38.8%; our conservative estimate 39.0%
• • Home would need odds ≥ 2.564 to be +EV at our estimate; current 2.40 is negative EV

Pros

• + We used a conservative, market-aware probability rather than overconfident assumptions
• + Clear numerical thresholds provided (min required odds) to identify value if prices move

Cons

• - Very limited information increases uncertainty and model reliance on market odds
• - Small differences between our estimate and market could flip EV; outcome sensitive to unobserved factors

Details

We have no outside data on form, surface, injuries, or head-to-head, so we rely on the quoted moneyline and conservative adjustments. The market raw implied probabilities are Home 1/2.4 = 41.67% and Away 1/1.52 = 65.79% (booksum >100% due to margin). Normalizing those gives roughly Home 38.8% / Away 61.2%. Given the lack of independent information, we adopt a conservative estimated true probability for the home player of 39.0% (close to the normalized market-implied but adjusted for uncertainty). At that true probability the fair decimal price is 1 / 0.39 = 2.564. The current home price of 2.40 is below that threshold when accounting for uncertainty and margin, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.39 * 2.40 - 1 = -0.064). The away side at 1.52 is priced too short versus both the market-normalized probability and our conservative assessment and also yields negative EV. Because neither side shows positive EV at the available prices, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external data on player form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H increases uncertainty
• • Market prices imply a clear favorite (away) after normalizing, but the book margin inflates implied probabilities
• • Conservative adjustment toward uncertainty yields a home fair price above the available 2.40, but not decisively enough given unknowns