Christopher O'Connell vs Alejandro Tabilo

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for O'Connell is ~50.5%; we estimate ~57%
• • Required fair odds for value are ≤ 1.754; current 1.98 offers positive EV

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge vs market-implied probability
• + Tabilo's recent form and surface exposure are questionable in available data

Cons

• - Research provided is limited and lacks head-to-head and O'Connell-specific details
• - Tennis matches (especially on grass) can be high variance and sensitive to short-term form/injury

Details

We believe Christopher O'Connell is undervalued by the market. The book implies O'Connell's win probability at 1.98 is ~50.5% while Alejandro Tabilo (1.855) is favored at ~54.0%. However, the available research shows Tabilo has a recent 14-25 record with matches on clay and hard courts and no clear grass track record in the provided data, suggesting form and surface uncertainty for him. Given the grass surface and Tabilo's poor recent win-loss and lack of grass evidence, we estimate O'Connell's true win probability at 57%. At that probability the fair odds would be ~1.754, so the current 1.98 offers positive expected value. EV calculation: 0.57 * 1.98 - 1 = 0.1286 (≈12.9% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home player at current market prices because the market appears to overvalue Tabilo relative to the evidence provided.

Key factors

• • Tabilo's recent overall form is poor (14-25 in provided span)
• • Research lists Tabilo surfaces as clay/hard with no grass data provided
• • Market favors Tabilo (1.855) despite the above, creating a potential misprice