Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~91.6% for the favorite; our read is ~93%
• • Rigele Te's recent losses and lack of grass history reduce his upset probability

Pros

• + Slight positive EV at current widely-available price (1.091)
• + Low variance outcome when favorites are heavy and opponent shows limited form

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈1.5% ROI) — sensitive to estimation error
• - Limited direct data on the favorite in provided research increases model uncertainty

Details

The market prices Christopher O'Connell as an overwhelming favorite (decimal 1.091 → implied ~91.6%). Using the available intel on Rigele Te — a 11-18 career record, poor recent results on hard courts, and no documented grass resume — we assess Te's chance to upset as very low. We estimate O'Connell's true win probability at 93.0%, slightly higher than the market's 91.6% implied probability, creating a small positive edge on the 1.091 quote. EV calculation: EV = 0.93 * 1.091 - 1 = +0.01463 (≈ +1.46% ROI). Given the heavy favorite status and scant evidence supporting an upset, backing the home player at 1.091 offers low but measurable value versus the available information.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the home player is ~91.6%; we estimate 93% true probability
• • Rigele Te has an 11-18 career record with weak recent form (losses in late Aug/early Sep 2025)
• • Surface is grass and Te has no documented grass results, increasing upset uncertainty in favor of the favorite