Highlights

• • Home implied probability 90.9% vs our 93% estimate
• • Rigele Te has poor recent results on hard courts in the provided data

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the current market price
• + Opponent's documented recent losses on the same surface reduce upset chances

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈2.3% ROI) — sensitive to probability estimate error
• - Limited opponent-specific detail in provided research increases model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Christopher O'Connell 1.10) to our estimated win probability. The market implies ~90.9% for the home player. Rigele Te's recorded form in the provided data is weak (career-to-date 11-18 with recent straight losses on hard courts), which supports a materially higher probability for the favourite than the underdog. Given the thin upside for Rigele and the match being on hard courts (the surface shown in Rigele's recent results), we estimate Christopher O'Connell's true win probability at ~93%. At that probability the home price 1.10 yields a small positive edge (EV = 0.93 * 1.10 - 1 = 0.023). Because expected_value is positive at the current quoted price, we recommend the home side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.10) is ~90.9%; our estimate is higher (93%)
• • Rigele Te's recent form in the research: 11-18 career record with recent losses on hard courts
• • Match on hard surface where Rigele's recent results in the research show defeats, reducing upset likelihood