Christopher O'Connell vs Marat Sharipov

Highlights

• • Market implies 73.5% for home; our conservative estimate is 70%
• • EV at current home odds is negative (~ -4.8% of stake)

Pros

• + Sharipov's record (41-24) shows competence on hard courts, so an upset is plausible if conditions favor him
• + Market already heavily favors the home player, reflecting typical expectations

Cons

• - Current home price (1.36) does not offer value vs our conservative probability estimate
• - Research provided is one-sided (Sharipov only) and lacks H2H or clear form/injury context, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (O'Connell 1.36 => implied 73.5%) against our conservative assessment. The only research provided concerns Marat Sharipov: he has a 41-24 record across 65 matches with play on hard and clay, but his recent extracted lines show mixed results and no clear form surge that would suggest a significantly greater upset chance than the market-implied probability. Given the limited data (no detailed info on O'Connell, injuries, or direct H2H), we adopt a conservative estimated win probability for the home favorite of 70%. At the quoted home price of 1.36 this produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.70*1.36 - 1 = -0.048), so we do not recommend backing either side at current prices. To achieve positive EV on our estimate we would require a decimal price >= 1.429 for the home favorite, or a much longer price on Sharipov.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for O'Connell is ~73.5% (1.36)
• • Sharipov has a 41-24 record but limited pro span and mixed recent results
• • Available research lacks injury/H2H details and information on O'Connell, so uncertainty is higher