Cing-Yang Meng vs Chase Ferguson

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Ferguson (1.316) = ~76.0%; our estimate = 72.0%
• • Required decimal to be +EV on Ferguson = 1.389; current quote (1.316) is below that threshold

Pros

• + Ferguson: larger match experience and stronger surface relevance (hard)
• + Meng: higher decimal (3.17) would need to be materially larger to represent value given his recent form

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and noisy serve stats increase variance and reduce confidence
• - Current market prices offer no positive expected value for either side based on our read

Details

We compare the market prices to our estimate of win probability based solely on the provided player profiles and match context. Chase Ferguson has a larger match sample (27 matches, 13-14) and more consistent recent play on hard courts versus Cing-Yang Meng (7 matches, 3-4). Meng's recent hard-court showing includes a loss with a weak 1st-serve performance (1st serve won ~42%), while Ferguson's recent lines show much stronger serving indicators. The market implies ~76.0% for Ferguson (decimal 1.316) and ~31.6% for Meng (decimal 3.17). Our assessed true probability for Ferguson is ~72.0% (we judge him the clear favorite but not as high as the market). At that probability the fair decimal is 1.389, which is above the available price of 1.316, producing a negative expected value. Conversely, Meng's current price of 3.17 implies ~31.6% which is roughly in line with or slightly above our estimate for him, so we see no positive edge there either. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Ferguson has a larger sample (27 matches) and more wins overall (13) versus Meng (7 matches, 3 wins)
• • Both players have recent hard-court matches; Meng showed poor 1st-serve performance in his recent loss
• • Market prices imply Ferguson at ~76% but our assessment is ~72%, so the favorite is slightly overvalued