Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home: ~48.78%
• • Our estimated probability: 49.0% → small positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at available price (albeit very small)
• + Assessment based on parity in career records and lack of negative indicators

Cons

• - Edge is extremely small (EV ~0.45%) and may be erased by price movement or unreported info
• - Very limited form and surface detail in the research increases uncertainty

Details

We find a small value on the home moneyline (Claudia Ferrer Perez). The research shows near-identical career records and limited distinguishing form or surface data, implying an essentially even matchup. The market decimal price for the home player (2.05) implies a win probability of 48.78%, while our conservative true probability assessment is 49.0% based on parity in records and lack of contrary indicators — creating a small positive edge after accounting for the book margin. Given the paucity of separation in form/injury information, this is a cautious, low-signal value bet rather than a strong play.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career win-loss records and surface histories point to a very even matchup
• • Recent match listings show losses for both players with no clear form advantage
• • Current market odds (home 2.05) are marginally better than our estimated fair price, producing a small positive EV