Highlights

• • Away price 1.045 implies ~95.7% win probability — unsupported by the research
• • Fair price for the favorite (given our estimate) would be ~1.667; current price offers negative EV

Pros

• + Clear decision: heavy market skew makes it easy to identify lack of value
• + Estimate is conservative and grounded in the symmetric career/form data provided

Cons

• - Research is sparse — missing H2H, up-to-the-minute injury/withdrawal information that could change the conclusion
• - If the market price reflects an undisclosed fact (walkover, late injury), our analysis may not apply

Details

We find no value on either side given the provided research. The market price (Away Alice Rame 1.045, Home Claudia Gasparovic 18.65) implies an extremely high chance for Rame (~95.7%), but the only available data shows nearly identical career records and recent form for both players with no injury, H2H, or surface edge documented that would justify a ~96% true win probability. Based on the research, a far more conservative estimate for Rame's true win probability is 60% (0.60). At that estimate the minimum fair decimal price for Rame would be 1.667; the current available price of 1.045 (odds_used_for_ev = 1.045) produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.60 * 1.045 - 1 = -0.373), so we do not recommend taking the market favorite. Conversely, accepting a materially higher probability for Gasparovic to make the home price (18.65) valuable would contradict the symmetric career and form data in research; absent clear contrary evidence (injury, withdrawal, or obvious matchup edge), the longshot price appears to be a market artifact rather than true value.

Key factors

• • Research shows nearly identical career records and recent form for both players
• • No documented injuries, H2H, or surface advantage to justify a ~96% market probability
• • Current market is extremely skewed (Away 1.045 vs Home 18.65) — likely no true value at the favorite price