Cleeve Harper vs Orel Kimhi

Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Kimhi 53.0% vs implied 50.5%
• • Current away odds (1.98) exceed our fair threshold (1.887), producing positive EV

Pros

• + Larger sample size and slightly better hard-court form for Kimhi
• + Market appears to slightly overvalue home player, offering a pricing edge

Cons

• - Small overall datasets and limited detailed match-level metrics increase uncertainty
• - Edge is modest (EV ~4.9%), so variance can easily eliminate short-term profit

Details

We assess value on Orel Kimhi (away). Kimhi has a larger sample (25 matches, 13-12) and consistent hard-court activity versus Cleeve Harper's smaller sample (16 matches, 7-9) with mixed results. Both players have recent hard-court results, but the data shows Kimhi running slightly better form and experience on hard courts. The market prices Harper at 1.75 (implied ~57.1%) while Kimhi is 1.98 (implied ~50.5%). Based on comparative records, surface alignment, and recent results, we estimate Kimhi's true win probability at 53.0%, which implies fair odds of ~1.887. At the current away price 1.98, the expected value is positive (EV = 0.53 * 1.98 - 1 ≈ 0.049), so the away line offers small but real value. We account for limited data quality and no head-to-head information, so the edge is modest and requires conservative confidence.

Key factors

• • Kimhi has larger match sample (25 vs 16) and a marginally better record
• • Both players primarily on hard courts; Kimhi's recent hard-court activity is slightly stronger
• • Bookmaker prices favor home Harper more than our estimated probability implies, creating value on Kimhi