Highlights

• • Chidekh shows stronger form and a better career win rate
• • Current favorite price (1.43) yields negative EV vs our probability estimate

Pros

• + Home player (Rennes) with recent positive results and familiarity with surface
• + Clear seasonal edge in win-loss record and recent match wins

Cons

• - Market has already priced Chidekh highly, leaving no profitable margin
• - Janvier's occasional good serving stats could create volatility, increasing upset risk

Details

We estimate Clement Chidekh is the stronger player here based on a superior career win rate (41-30) and recent Rennes Challenger form, but the market odds (1.43) imply ~70% and appear slightly rich versus our assessment. We estimate Chidekh's true win probability at ~65% given surface familiarity (hard), recent home-form indicators, and Maxime Janvier's weaker overall record (22-41) and mixed recent results. At a true probability of 0.65 the home line (1.43) produces negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.071 per unit). The away price (2.75) would require Janvier to have ≥36.36% chance to break even; we assess his realistic chance as materially below that level given form and career numbers. Therefore no side offers positive EV at current quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Chidekh superior recent form at Rennes and overall win rate (41-30)
• • Both players have Challenger-level hard-court experience, but Janvier's overall record is weaker (22-41)
• • Market prices for the favorite (1.43) imply a higher win probability than our estimate, removing value