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Club America vs CD Olimpia play on 2026-02-12 01:00 in the CONCACAF - Champions Cup (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 94.7%. Suggested side: CD Olimpia. Moneyline — Home: 1.246 (80.3%), Away: 8.85 (11.3%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: CD Olimpia. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.246, Away: 8.85. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: CD Olimpia moneyline given current prices.
Bookmaker moneyline (Club América 1.246 / Olimpia 8.85) implies an 80.3% chance for América and 11.3% for Olimpia. Independent prediction sites in the research cluster América win probability around ~52–53%, with other outlets noting Olimpia's strong unbeaten run and resilience. We estimate América win probability at 0.56, draw ~0.22 and Olimpia win probability at 0.22. At that true probability (22%), the away price 8.85 represents large value: EV = 0.22 * 8.85 - 1 = +0.947 (94.7% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The market appears to have dramatically over-weighted the home side (likely by heavily favouring home advantage), while consensus previews and Olimpia form indicate a materially higher chance for the visitors than the 11.3% implied. Given the large gap between our estimated probability and the current odds, we recommend backing Olimpia at current lines.
Summary: We find clear value on CD Olimpia at 8.85; our 22% win probability produces a large positive EV (≈0.947) against the current market price.