Highlights

• • Players have near-identical records and surface history
• • Home 1.909 and Away 1.794 both undercut the fair 2.00 decimal implied by a 50% win probability

Pros

• + Clear, conservative estimate based on identical supplied profiles
• + Avoids wagering when market offers no positive EV

Cons

• - Limited differentiation data — small informational edge could change the view
• - If unprovided latest form or injuries exist, our 50% estimate may be off

Details

We find no value at the current market prices. Both players show effectively identical profiles in the supplied data (career span, 10-21 records, similar surfaces and recent results dominated by losses), and there is no H2H or injury information to separate them. Given the lack of distinguishing factors we treat the match as roughly a 50/50 contest (true win probability ~50%). The market prices (Home 1.909, Away 1.794) imply required true probabilities of ~52.4% and ~55.8% respectively; those odds are too short versus our 50% estimate. Using 50% as our estimated_true_probability, the expected return on a 1-unit stake is negative at both available prices (home EV ≈ -0.046, away EV ≈ -0.103), so we do not recommend taking a side.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surface experience (both 10-21)
• • Recent results in supplied data show multiple recent losses for both players
• • Market prices are shorter than our fair odds for a 50/50 matchup