Colin Sinclair vs Arjun Mehrotra
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home (Colin Sinclair) because our model estimates a higher win probability (88%) than the market-implied 83.7%, yielding ~+5.25% EV at decimal 1.196.
Highlights
- • Market price 1.196 implies ~83.7% chance; we estimate 88%
- • EV per 1 unit stake ≈ +0.0525 (5.25% ROI)
Pros
- + Clear discrepancy between implied and estimated probability
- + Opponent shows poor recent results and limited match volume in the provided research
Cons
- - Sinclair's overall 20-20 record is not dominant—sample and form volatility remain
- - Research dataset is limited and contains few recent head-to-head or injury details
Details
We estimate Colin Sinclair is undervalued at the current market price. The market-implied probability from the home decimal 1.196 is ~83.7%, while our assessment (based on the players' recent records and surface history in the provided research) gives Sinclair a ~88.0% chance. Arjun Mehrotra's 1-6 record and very limited match volume indicate weak form and lower likelihood of upsetting. At our probability the minimum fair odds would be ~1.136; the offered 1.196 therefore contains positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.88 * 1.196 - 1 = +0.05248 (≈+5.25% ROI). We used the quoted home price 1.196 for the EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Arjun Mehrotra has a poor recent record (1-6) and limited match experience in the research provided
- • Colin Sinclair has substantially more matches (20-20 overall) and more hard-court activity in the dataset
- • Market-implied probability (83.7%) is below our estimated true probability (88%), producing positive EV