Colin Sinclair vs Asher Brownrigg
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — the favorite's price (1.024) implies near-certainty which is unsupported by the available data; we assess Sinclair around 65% and see negative EV at current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied probability at current price: ~97.7%
- • Our estimated win probability: 65% (fair odds ~1.538)
Pros
- + Sinclair has hard-court experience and a sizable sample of matches
- + Available recent-match snippets show he competes regularly on hard surfaces
Cons
- - Market pricing is extremely one-sided and creates no positive EV at available odds
- - Lack of opponent data prevents confident assignment of a near-certain win probability
Details
The market prices Colin Sinclair at 1.024 (implied ~97.66%). Our assessment, based only on the provided profile, places Sinclair's win probability materially lower (~65%) given a .500 career record (20-20), mixed recent form on hard courts, and no information about Asher Brownrigg to justify near-certain favoritism. At our estimated probability the fair decimal price is ~1.538; the offered 1.024 produces a strongly negative expected value. Because the bookmaker's price implies an unrealistically high probability that we cannot support from the available data, there is no value on either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker-implied probability for Sinclair (97.7%) is far higher than our estimate
- • Colin Sinclair has a 20-20 career record and mixed recent results on hard courts
- • No information on Asher Brownrigg available in the research to justify extreme market skew