Colin Sinclair vs Marc Polmans

Highlights

• • Sinclair priced at 2.79 implies only ~35.8% win probability
• • We estimate Sinclair closer to 42% based on comparable records and Polmans' recent form

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current price if our probability estimate holds
• + Both players experienced on hard courts, reducing surface-based risk

Cons

• - Limited and incomplete recent-match data and no H2H in the provided research
• - Polmans has a slightly better overall record and is the market favorite, meaning upset risk is real

Details

We find value backing Colin Sinclair (home) at 2.79 because the market heavily favors Marc Polmans (1.395) despite both players having similar career records and both playing on hard courts. The limited research shows Sinclair 20-20 (40 matches) with hard-court experience and mixed recent results, while Polmans is 24-20 (44 matches) with multi-surface experience but with two recent straight losses on hard. The market-implied probability for Sinclair (≈35.8%) looks overstated against the available form/profile data; we estimate Sinclair's true win probability materially higher due to comparable head-to-head capability on hard, Polmans' recent losing form, and the small sample margins separating them. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 42%, the 2.79 price yields positive expected value. Given the uncertainty from sparse recent-match detail and no H2H, we remain cautious but see a quantifiable edge at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have comparable overall records; Polmans slightly ahead (24-20 vs 20-20) but not dominant
• • Both have hard-court experience; Sinclair's profile shows hard-court matches while Polmans' recent two hard losses reduce confidence
• • Market heavily favors Polmans (implied ~71.7%); available form suggests that favoring may be overstated