Connor McEvoy vs Ethan Cook
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices Ethan Cook as an overwhelming favorite (1.04) despite a weak documented record; we see strong value on the home underdog at 10.5 given our estimated 65% true win probability for McEvoy, but uncertainty is high due to missing opponent data.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Cook is ~96%, far above his historical win rate (~31%).
- • If McEvoy has even parity with Cook's recent opponents, the 10.5 price on McEvoy is a substantial value opportunity.
Pros
- + Huge mathematical edge at current market price if our probability estimate is reasonable.
- + Cook's recent form and overall record do not justify a near-certain market price.
Cons
- - Very limited information on Connor McEvoy (no form, ranking, or injury data in provided research).
- - High model risk: if McEvoy is significantly inferior (information not in research), the value vanishes.
Details
We find a large pricing dislocation: the market prices Connor McEvoy (home) at 10.5 decimal (implied 9.52%) while Ethan Cook is 1.04 (implied 96.15%). The only concrete data we have is Ethan Cook's career record (5-11) and recent losses on hard/grass, which indicates poor form and a low baseline win-rate (~31%). With no public data on Connor McEvoy in the provided research, we treat McEvoy as at least comparable to the opponents Cook has been losing to and therefore assign a far higher true chance to the home player. Our working estimate is Connor McEvoy win probability = 0.65 (65%). At that probability the fair odds for McEvoy are 1.538 (1 / 0.65), far shorter than 10.5; at 10.5 the expected value is extremely positive (EV = 0.65 * 10.5 - 1 = 5.825). Even with conservative downward adjustments to our probability, the market still appears to offer strong value on the home underdog. However, confidence is limited because we only have Cook's profile and no direct H2H, ranking, or injury information for McEvoy; this increases execution risk despite the theoretical edge.
Key factors
- • Ethan Cook's documented career record is weak (5-11) with recent losses, implying a low baseline win probability
- • Market implies Ethan Cook ~96% win chance (decimal 1.04) which strongly conflicts with his documented form
- • No available data on Connor McEvoy in the provided research, creating uncertainty but also suggesting the market may be overreacting to Cook