Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.52) = ~65.8%; our conservative estimate = 63.0%
• • Required decimal odds for a value bet on the home given our estimate = 1.587 (higher than current 1.52)

Pros

• + Market clearly prefers the home player, suggesting a real favorite
• + Odds are stable and widely available (liquidity) at quoted prices

Cons

• - Attributed probability below market-implied probability — negative EV on the favorite
• - No external form/injury/H2H data to justify taking the underdog at 2.40

Details

We have no independent match data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to materially alter the market, so we apply a conservative estimate. The market prices place the home player at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%) and the away player at 2.40 (implied ~41.7%), producing an overround (~7.5% vig). Our conservative estimated true probability for the home player is 63.0% (0.630) — below the market-implied 65.8% — which gives a negative expected value at the offered 1.52. The away player's implied probability (41.7%) exceeds our conservative estimate for the away (37.0% = 1 - 0.63), so that side is also a negative- or break-even expectation once vig and uncertainty are considered. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at current prices. We list the minimum odds that would be required for positive EV given our estimate and show the negative EV at the current favorite price.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface or injuries — conservative priors only
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.52) is ~65.8%, above our conservative estimate of 63%
• • Market overround (~7.5%) inflates favorite price; neither side clears a value threshold under our estimate