Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~84% vs our estimate ~70%
• • Required decimal odds for value ≥ 1.429 (current 1.19 is well below that)

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home player, reflecting a strong public/market view
• + Matches listed were on hard courts which matches the surface, reducing one variable

Cons

• - Player data set is extremely small (2 matches) making true-skill inference unreliable
• - No information provided about Blake Anderson (form, experience, injuries, H2H)

Details

We compare the market price (Home 1.19, implied ~84.0%) to our assessment based on the available data. The only structured data available is a very small sample for Connor Henry Van Schalkwyk (two matches, 1-1 on hard courts in early 2025) and no corroborating profile, form, or injury information for Blake Anderson. Given the tiny sample size and absence of head-to-head, we judge the true probability of the home player winning to be materially lower than the market-implied 84%. Using a conservative estimated win probability of 70%, the favorite at 1.19 produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.19 - 1 ≈ -0.167), so there is no value at current prices. To find value we would need a price ≥ 1.429 (implied probability ≤ 70%). Because the market is pricing the home player as a near-lock without sufficient supporting data, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Extremely limited match data for the home player (2 matches, 1-1)
• • Both recorded matches were on hard courts (surface match) but sample size too small to infer form
• • Market heavily favors home (implied ~84%) with no visible supporting depth of data on opponent